When we assess value in the outright markets, we’re not just looking for longshots — we’re looking for mispricings. And in the women’s draw at Roland-Garros 2025, one stands out more clearly than any other: Aryna Sabalenka at 4.0 to lift the trophy 🏆.
To put it plainly — we believe Sabalenka should be priced closer to 2.0, in line with Carlos Alcaraz in the men’s field. In fact, we’d go further: Sabalenka is currently a more dominant figure in the women’s game than Alcaraz is in the men’s 💪.
🔥 Recent Form: Matching Alcaraz Blow for Blow
Both Sabalenka and Alcaraz come into Paris having won 9 of their last 10 matches — elite form heading into a Slam 💥. Yet while the men’s market reflects Alcaraz’s status with a short 2.0 price tag, Sabalenka’s 4.0 stands out as a glaring value play 📉➡️📈.
🚫 The Main Threat? Less Than Meets the Eye
The obvious counterpoint is Iga Swiatek 🧠. But Iga’s 2025 clay campaign has been rocky and inconsistent, marked by unforced error counts and mental dips we haven’t seen from her in previous years 📉.
Contrast this with the men’s draw: Jannik Sinner has been on fire 🔥, with a sharper game and more momentum than Swiatek. In our model, Sinner represents a significantly greater threat to Alcaraz than Swiatek does to Sabalenka — and that gap is not priced in ❌.
📊 The Conclusion? Mispricing.
In our view at The Fund, Sabalenka should be co-favourite at worst. The price of 4.0 implies just a 25% chance of her winning 🧮. We rate that closer to 50%, and that difference is the definition of betting value ✅.
This isn’t just a flyer. This is a calculated, high-confidence position based on performance trends, opponent form, and market inefficiencies 🎯.
✅ The Tip:
Aryna Sabalenka to win Roland-Garros 2025 – 4.0 (Best Price Available)
📈 Rated true odds: 2.0 – Outstanding value
